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Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for global investment and trade

Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti and Martino Ricci ()

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2020, vol. 1

Abstract: Over the past year the global economy has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown. Global growth has weakened on the back of soft investment, which was also a key driver of global trade’s sharp fall into contractionary territory in the first half of 2019 (see Chart A). The slowdown in global investment and trade has occurred in an environment of rising trade tensions between the United States and China, slowing Chinese demand, (geo-)political tensions, Brexit and idiosyncratic stresses in several emerging economies, with rising uncertainty magnifying the negative impact. Against this backdrop, this box assesses the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade. JEL Classification: F21, F44, C54

Keywords: global investment; global trade; Global uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-02
Note: 504004
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