Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area

Niccolò Battistini and Grigor Stoevsky

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2020, vol. 3

Abstract: This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario. JEL Classification: E21, E22, E33

Keywords: Activity; COVID-19; Euro Area; Growth; Pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
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