High-frequency data developments in the euro area labour market

Nicola Benatti, Vasco Botelho, Agostino Consolo, António Dias Da Silva and Malgorzata Osiewicz

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2020, vol. 5

Abstract: This box examines high-frequency data to quantify the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on both job postings and hiring patterns in the euro area. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, both of these indicators had increased steadily year on year, reflecting a rise in the number of job findings in the euro area. However, both the Indeed job postings and the LinkedIn hiring rate have declined significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns, with the hiring rate bottoming out in May 2020. While the decline in the hiring rate was broad-based across sectors, the intensity of the COVID-19 shock is asymmetric, with sectors such as recreation, travel and manufacturing being more affected by the crisis than others, such as healthcare, software and IT services sectors. Based on the high-frequency information derived from the hiring rate, the implied unemployment rate is expected to peak during the second quarter of 2020 and to be around 2.3 percentage points higher than in February. Overall, the methodology and the high-frequency data used in this box allow for a timely assessment of developments in the euro area labour market. The use of job flows in and out of unemployment helps to enhance our understanding of the labour market adjustment during the current COVID-19 crisis. JEL Classification: E24, E27

Keywords: COVID-19 crisis; Job flows; Sectoral hiring rates; Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
Note: 2211572
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