Assessing short-term economic developments in times of COVID-19

Niccolò Battistini, Gabe de Bondt, Roberto A. De Santis and Lorena Saiz

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2021, vol. 8

Abstract: The exceptional contraction in economic activity induced by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has warranted an update of the standard toolkit used to forecast euro area real GDP in real time. This box describes the adjustments and the additions to the standard toolkit developed by ECB staff to account for the dramatic change in statistical and economic relationships due to COVID-19. The use of each individual tool is subject to a considerable degree of judgment as to the type of adjustment needed to best capture the sharp movements in economic activity. These tools have provided helpful insights into forecasting euro area real GDP in real time, even if they imply some shortcomings. JEL Classification: C18, E27

Keywords: COVID-19; macroeconomic outlook; Short-term forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01
Note: 337418
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/f ... 3~86b986a4f0.en.html (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0008:3

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Bulletin Boxes from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().