Wage share dynamics and second-round effects on inflation after energy price surges in the 1970s and today

Niccolò Battistini, Helen Grapow, Elke Hahn and Michel Soudan

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2022, vol. 5

Abstract: This box reviews wage share dynamics and potential second-round effects on inflation at times of energy price increases. Compared to a well-known episode with some similar features – the OPEC oil embargo in October 1973 – recent energy price increases have so far had limited implications for labour income and the GDP deflator. This contained impact reflects the relatively mild terms-of-trade loss and subdued real wage dynamics today compared to the 1970s. However, the experience in the United States in both episodes shows that significant increases in the GDP deflator may arise even in the presence of weak real wage growth. A model-based analysis finds that the transmission of energy price increases to inflation, and in particular the emergence of second-round effects, has been more limited or even absent since the start of monetary union. Nevertheless, high and persistent inflation increases the risk of second-round effects materialising via higher wages and profit margins. JEL Classification: E24, E25, E31, E37

Keywords: inflation; second-round effects; Wages; wage share (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08
Note: 854549
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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