Carry-over effects and intra-quarter GDP growth – estimates based on monthly indicators

Magnus Forsells and Johannes Gareis

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2022, vol. 7

Abstract: Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions. JEL Classification: E00, O10

Keywords: carry-over effects; GDP growth; sectors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11
Note: 339042
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