Risks to global food prices from El Niño
Jakob Adolfsen and
Marie-Sophie Lappe
Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2023, vol. 6
Abstract:
After three years of below-average ocean surface temperatures, the arrival of El Niño this year implies risks to global food prices. El Niño is the warm phase of the temperature cycle in the East-Central tropical Pacific, when ocean surface temperatures exceed normal temperatures by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius. The effects of El Niño on climate patterns are complex, although the phenomenon is likely to put upward pressure on global food commodity prices due to higher risks of extreme weather events, which have already been taking place more frequently in recent years. The magnitude of the effect on global food commodity prices depends on the strength of the El Niño phenomenon. In turn, if current conditions develop into a strong El Niño, it could cause global food commodity prices to increase by up to 9%, with the strongest effects expected for soybeans, corn and rice. Accordingly, financial markets appeared to factor in future price increases for grains as well as higher uncertainty about future grain prices immediately after it was announced that El Niño conditions had arrived. JEL Classification: Q02, Q17, Q54
Keywords: extreme weather; Food commodity prices; risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-09
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin ... 1~36e78cc75e.en.html (text/html)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2023:0006:1
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Economic Bulletin Boxes from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().