Global trade in the post-pandemic environment

Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, Laura Hespert, Jan Linzenich and Baptiste Meunier

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2024, vol. 1

Abstract: The pandemic triggered the deepest global recession (albeit short-lived) since the Second World War amid large-scale policy support, and led to a sweeping fall in world trade. Following the initial COVID-19 shock, trade staged a rapid recovery, but from the second half of 2022 world trade growth started to decelerate markedly and in 2023 it is estimated to have been considerably below its pre-pandemic average. This box reviews the factors behind the buoyant recovery of global trade following the initial COVID-19 shock and the reasons for its lacklustre performance in 2023, finding that the latter mainly reflects the unwinding of some specific post-pandemic factors (e.g. the rotation of demand from trade-intensive goods towards services owing to the full relaxation of pandemic containment measures) and a less trade-friendly composition of global activity. JEL Classification: F01, F1, F4

Keywords: COVID; global economy; International trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02
Note: 930374
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0001:1

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