Is the PMI a reliable indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP?

Gabe de Bondt and Lorena Saiz

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2024, vol. 1

Abstract: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys are insightful because PMIs are released in advance of official hard data and are typically strongly correlated with these. This Box reports that after losing some predictive capacity during pandemic-related lockdowns and reopenings, the euro area composite output PMI is once again a reliable timely indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP growth. JEL Classification: E32, E37

Keywords: nowcasting; Surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02
Note: 337418
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