Policy expectation errors during the recent tightening cycle – insights from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts

Yıldız Akkaya, Lea Bitter, Claus Brand and Diogo Sá

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2024, vol. 1

Abstract: Financial markets and analysts significantly underestimated the pace and size of the recent increases in the key ECB interest rates. This box measures the size and dynamics of policy expectation errors. Based on information from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts, it suggests that these expectation errors were driven mainly by revisions to macroeconomic expectations, indicating that analysts perceived a broadly consistent policy reaction to macroeconomic developments. JEL Classification: E52, E44, G12

Keywords: excess returns; expectation error; Monetary policy expectations; Survey of Monetary Analysts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02
Note: 92649
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0001:6

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