The performance of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic

Adrian Page

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2024, vol. 7

Abstract: Following a series of analyses on the accuracy of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for inflation in recent years, this box shifts the focus to staff projections for growth. It shows that since 2022, the growth projections have been very reliable in the very short term but have tended to be too optimistic over one-year horizons. Private consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment, have tended to disappoint, due in part to monetary policy being tighter than initially assumed and uncertainty about its economic impact. However, once adjusted for errors in the conditioning assumptions of the projections, the projection errors are notably smaller, especially over the past year. Overall, despite the series of large shocks which hit the euro area economy in recent years, staff growth projection errors have been comparable with pre-pandemic averages. JEL Classification: C53, E37

Keywords: Forecast errors; Macroeconomic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
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