Uncertainty in seasonally adjusted services inflation: the role of Easter and travel

Martin Eiglsperger, Mario Porqueddu and Elisabeth Wieland

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2025, vol. 5

Abstract: This box outlines the uncertainty related to the seasonal and calendar adjustment of the euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for services. To gauge the impact of statistical estimations with respect to this uncertainty, we zoom in on historical revisions of seasonal and calendar adjustments conducted by the ECB and the results of alternative methods. The implications for the interpretation of services momentum – which moved up sharply recently – are derived from these findings. JEL Classification: E31;

Keywords: disinflation; euro area; inflation; services inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2025:0005:5

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