Shifts in OPEC+ behaviour and downside risks to oil prices

Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2025, vol. 7

Abstract: Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today. While the current environment shows signs of continued OPEC-driven downward pressure on oil markets, the conditions that led to the dramatic price collapse in 2014 – in particular, robust non-OPEC supply growth – are not fully present today. JEL Classification: E31, Q43, Q47

Keywords: oil prices; oil supply; OPEC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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