Consumption and saving amid uncertainty: recent insights from the CES

Maria Dimou, Maarten Dossche, Teresa Hütten and Georgi Kocharkov

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2026, vol. 1

Abstract: This box examines how economic uncertainty influences the consumption and saving behaviour of euro area households, drawing on recent insights from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). Both the CES and the European Commission’s consumer survey point to similar trends in uncertainty over time. These show that while below its 2022-23 peak, uncertainty is still higher than the trough seen in mid-2021. Additional CES questions on the predictability of households’ financial situations reveal that respondents experiencing higher uncertainty spend less on durables and non-durables, while they save more, in line with a textbook precautionary saving motive. These findings underline the relevance of economic uncertainty in understanding current aggregate consumption and saving decisions in the euro area. JEL Classification: E21, D81

Keywords: consumption; saving; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
Note: 3577821
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