Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation?

Colm Bates, Friderike Kuik, Elisabeth Wieland and Zivile Zekaite

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2026, vol. 8

Abstract: Understanding food price dynamics is important both for monitoring overall inflation and for assessing consumers’ inflation expectations. Food inflation was 2.4% in November 2025, having declined from its March 2023 peak of 15.5%, but it remains above its pre-pandemic average. Key contributors to consumer food inflation include price rises of specific items, such as coffee, cocoa, meat and fruit. Commodity price increases have played a role – particularly coffee and cocoa commodities, reflecting extreme weather – as have factors such as wage growth in food-related sectors. While selling price expectations among food manufacturers and retailers indicate some near-term easing, the extent of this moderation remains uncertain owing to some persistent cost pressures in food retail. JEL Classification: D84, E31, Q02, Q11

Keywords: Commodities; Food inflation; Inflation; Inflation Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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