How large is the output gap in the euro area

Marek Jarociński and Michele Lenza

Research Bulletin, 2016, vol. 24

Abstract: The estimates of the output gap depend on the features of the models used to derive them. We discriminate among different estimates on the basis of their ability to forecast inflation. Our analysis suggests that output in the euro area was 6% lower than potential in 2014 and 2015, which is substantially below institutional estimates. JEL Classification: C32, C53, E31, E32, E37

Keywords: factor model; inflation forecast; output gap; phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-07
Note: 400529
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/r ... tml/rb160701.en.html (text/html)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/r ... html/rb160701.en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2016:0024:

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Research Bulletin from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().