The Exchange Rate and Company Failure in a Macro-Micro Model of the UK Company Sector

A W Goudie and G Meeks

Economic Journal, 1991, vol. 101, issue 406, 444-57

Abstract: A macro-micro model is presented which is used to predict company failure. It bridges the gap between previous macroeconomic models and the microeconomic approach to company failure in the finance literature: it can trace the probable effects of exogenous macroeconomic shocks upon the finances and the viability of individual members of the company sector. A series of simulation exercises using this model quantifies the impact of variations in the exchange rate upon the failure rate among the top one hundred U.K. companies. This impact is shown to be substantial, asymmetric, and at times nonlinear. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1991
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