Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias
Hyun Song Shin
Economic Journal, 1992, vol. 102, issue 411, 426-35
Abstract:
This paper examines the pricing of state contingent claims in the presence of insider traders. The specific setting is the market for bets in a horse race in which bookmakers compete in prices in anticipation of betting from a group of bettors, some of whom have insider information. The author identifies a condition which is necessary and sufficient for the so called "favorite-bias" in which, the prices on the favorites understate the winning changes of these horses relatively less than the prices on the longshots. The robustness of this result is examined in a more general framework, and the bias is shown to survive in a generalized form. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.
Date: 1992
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Chapter: PRICES OF STATE CONTINGENT CLAIMS WITH INSIDER TRADERS, AND THE FAVOURITE-LONGSHOT BIAS (2008) 
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