Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence

D Demery and N W Duck

Economic Journal, 1992, vol. 102, issue 414, 1094-101

Abstract: In this paper, the authors show that estimates of J. H. Cochrane's (1988) suggested measure of the persistence of fluctuations in real output will be biased if there is a single break in the mean rate of growth of output. The authors then show that the major findings of J. Y. Campbell and N. G. Mankiw (1989)--that for a number of industrial countries estimates of Cochrane's measure of persistence are generally very high though different and that a subgroup of countries with high output persistence have low relative output persistence--can be largely accounted for by the difference in each country between its pre-1974 and post-1973 mean growth rates. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1992
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