Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting

Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, et al
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gerald Dwyer

Economic Journal, 1993, vol. 103, issue 418, 586-601

Abstract: The authors test the hypothesis that subjects' forecasts in a stark experimental setting are not predictably different than the actual process generating the data. The particular process that they use is a random walk. Forty subjects predict realizations of random walks chosen to be consistent with the actual process generating the data. The authors find that they cannot predict subjects' deviations from rational expectations of the process actually generating the data for about half of the subjects. The authors cannot predict the forecast errors of about 90 percent of the subjects with information actually available to them. Coauthors are Arlington W. Williams, Raymond C. Battalio, and Timothy I. Mason. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1993
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (54)

Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0013-0133%2819930 ... 0.CO%3B2-O&origin=bc full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

Related works:
Working Paper: Tests of rational expectations in a stark setting (1989)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:103:y:1993:i:418:p:586-601

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... al.asp?ref=0013-0133

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Journal is currently edited by Martin Cripps, Steve Machin, Woulter den Haan, Andrea Galeotti, Rachel Griffith and Frederic Vermeulen

More articles in Economic Journal from Royal Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing () and Christopher F. Baum ().