On the Expectations View of the Term Structure, Term Premia and Survey-Based Expectations

Ronald MacDonald and Peter Macmillan

Economic Journal, 1994, vol. 104, issue 426, 1070-86

Abstract: In this paper, U.K. disaggregate survey data of expected future interest rates are used to test the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates at the short end of the maturity spectrum. In the aggregate, the expectations model is rejected, and both time-varying term premia and expected interest rate changes are demonstrated to be important in explaining the slope of the yield curve. Within the aggregate data however, the authors demonstrate that there are some differences with respect to the views of the term structure held. For example, the pure expectations model cannot be rejected for some individuals. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1994
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