The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment

Wiji Arulampalam and Mark Stewart

Economic Journal, 1995, vol. 105, issue 429, 321-32

Abstract: This paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the conditional probability of leaving unemployment for two male inflow cohorts entering unemployment at very different points in time: 1978 and 1987. The effect of income while unemployed is found to be much weaker for the 1987 cohort, an elasticity of -0.1 compared with -0.4, and is only found to be significant for teenagers and in the first three months of a spell. Demand constraints, measured by the local unemployment rate, are found to have a stronger negative effect on the exit probability for the 1987 cohort than in 1978. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1995
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