Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy

David Miles

Economic Journal, 1999, vol. 109, issue 452, 1-36

Abstract: Over the next few decades, there will be significant changes in the demographic structure of nearly all developed countries. Such dramatic demographic change could have a powerful impact upon saving behavior but estimates of how great the effects will be differ depending on what evidence is used. This paper argues that simulations based on calibrated general equilibrium models are likely to provide the most reliable evidence. A model is developed and is used to assess the impact of reforms to pension systems.

Date: 1999
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Working Paper: Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy (1997)
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