A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns

Mohammad Pesaran and Allan Timmermann

Economic Journal, 2000, vol. 110, issue 460, 159-91

Abstract: This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Pesaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors' search in "real time" for a model that can forecast stock returns. We find evidence of predictability in UK stock returns which could have been exploited by investors to improve on the risk-return trade-off offered by a passive strategy in the market portfolio. Alternative interpretations of this finding are briefly discussed.

Date: 2000
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Working Paper: A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns (1999)
Working Paper: A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns' (1996)
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