Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?

James Lothian and Mark Taylor

Economic Journal, 2008, vol. 118, issue 532, 1742-1763

Abstract: Using data since 1820 for the US, the UK and France, we test for the presence of real effects on the equilibrium real exchange rate (the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, HBS effect) in an explicitly nonlinear framework and allowing for shifts in real exchange rate volatility across nominal regimes. A statistically significant HBS effect for sterling-dollar captures its long-run trend and explains a proportion of variation in changes in the real rate that is proportional to the time horizon of the change. There is significant evidence of nonlinear reversion towards long-run equilibrium and downwards shifts in volatility during fixed nominal exchange rate regimes. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.

Date: 2008
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Working Paper: Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect? (2006)
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