Futures Trading, Storage, and the Division of Risk: A Multiperiod Analysis

David Hirshleifer

Economic Journal, 1989, vol. 99, issue 397, 700-719

Abstract: This paper analyzes the interaction of storage and futures trading when producers make decisions covering many harvests. In this more general context, by examining how risks are distributed between storers and growers, results are obtained that differ dramatically from previous models in the literature. When storage is costly, storers may reduce risk by taking long hedging positions, rather than selling inventories short. Contrary to the conventional view (in a tradition beginning with J. M. Keynes and J. R. Hicks), costless storage does not imply downward bias of futures prices (" normal backwardation"). Hedging against the optimally varying planting costs promotes upward price bias (" contango"), while hedging against storage costs to be incurred promotes downward bias. When the risks faced by growers and storers are negatively correlated, futures trading can substitute for vertical integration as a means of reducing risk. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1989
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0013-0133%2819890 ... 0.CO%3B2-F&origin=bc full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:99:y:1989:i:397:p:700-719

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... al.asp?ref=0013-0133

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Journal is currently edited by Martin Cripps, Steve Machin, Woulter den Haan, Andrea Galeotti, Rachel Griffith and Frederic Vermeulen

More articles in Economic Journal from Royal Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing () and Christopher F. Baum ().