Organic Interdependence, Uncertainty and Economic Analysis

E G Winslow

Economic Journal, 1989, vol. 99, issue 398, 1173-82

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of John Maynard Keynes's organic view of interdependence on his treatment of induction, probability, and expectations. It argues that, while organic interdependence is compatible with rational induction and prediction in some circumstances (as it must be if there is to be a foundation for economic analysis), it is not normally compatible with the existence of a rational foundation for expectation of future yield from capital assets. This is not destructive of economic analysis, however, because Keynes assumes most agents respond irrationally and conventionally, rather than rationally and capriciously, to fundamental uncertainty. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

Date: 1989
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