Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis

John Campbell

Econometrica, 1987, vol. 55, issue 6, 1249-73

Abstract: The permanent income hypothesis implies that people save because they rationally expect their permanent income to decline; they save "for a rainy day." It follows that saving should be at l east as good a predictor of declines in labor income as any other for ecast that can be constructed from publicly available information. Th e paper tests this hitherto ignored implication of the permanent inco me hypothesis, using quarterly aggregate data for the period 1953-84 in the United States. By contrast with much of the recent literature, the results here are valid when income is stationary in first differ ences rather than levels. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Date: 1987
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