The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis

Pierre Perron

Econometrica, 1989, vol. 57, issue 6, 1361-1401

Abstract: The unit root hypothesis is examined allowing a possible one-time change in the level or in the slope of the trend function. When fluctuations are stationary around a breaking trend function, standard tests cannot reject the unit root, even asymptotically. Consistent tests are derived and applied to the Nelson-Plosser data set (allowing a change in level for the 1929 crash) and to the postwar quarterly real GNP series (allowing a change in slope after 1973). The unit root hypothesis is rejected at a high confidence level for most series. Fluctuations are stationary. The only persistent "shocks" are the 1929 crash and the 1973 oil price shock. Copyright 1989 by The Econometric Society.

Date: 1989
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4017)

Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%2819891 ... O%3B2-W&origin=repec full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

Related works:
Working Paper: THE GREAT CRASH, THE OIL PRICE SHOCK AND THE UNIT ROOT HYPOTHESIS (1988)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:57:y:1989:i:6:p:1361-1401

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.economet ... ordering-back-issues

Access Statistics for this article

Econometrica is currently edited by Guido Imbens

More articles in Econometrica from Econometric Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().