Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Robert Engle, Takatoshi Ito () and Wen-Ling Lin

Econometrica, 1990, vol. 58, issue 3, 525-42

Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates. Careful examination of intra-daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses--heat waves and meteor showers. The heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility in one market is predicted only by the past of that market. The meteor shower hypothesis is that intra-daily volatility spills over from one market to the next. Using the GARCH model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra-daily market segments, we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave. Using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per-hour volatility in other markets. Copyright 1990 by The Econometric Society.

Date: 1990
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Related works:
Working Paper: METEOR SHOWERS OR HEAT WAGES? HETEROSKEDASTIC INTRA-DAILY VOLATILITY IN A THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (1988)
Working Paper: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market (1988)
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