Prediction, Optimization, and Learning in Repeated Games

John Nachbar

Econometrica, 1997, vol. 65, issue 2, 275-310

Abstract: This paper shows that, in many infinitely repeated games, if players optimize with respect to beliefs that satisfy a diversity condition termed neutrality, then each player will choose a strategy that his opponent was certain would not be played. This is an obstacle to formulation of a learning theory in which Nash equilibrium behavior is a necessary long-run consequence of optimization by cautious players.

Date: 1997
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