Modelling the Errors of EIA's Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Gholam Hossein Hasantash, Hamidreza Mostafaei and Shaghayegh Kordnoori
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Gholam Hossein Hasantash: Faculty Member, Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES)
Shaghayegh Kordnoori: MSc of Statistics & Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT,Tehran, Iran.

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2012, vol. 2, issue 3, 312-319

Abstract: Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

Keywords: Grey theory; Grey Markov model; EIA; Oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C53 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-03-9

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