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Global Contagion of Investor Sentiment during the US Subprime Crisis: The Case of the USA and the Region of Latin America

Mariem Talbi and Amel Ben Halima
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Mariem Talbi: University of Tunis El Manar, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, International Finance Group Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia.
Amel Ben Halima: University of Tunis El Manar, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, International Finance Group Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia.

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2019, vol. 9, issue 3, 163-174

Abstract: This paper contributes to a growing body of literature studying investor sentiment. Sentiment measures for USA investors are constructed from commonly cited sentiment indicators using the first principle component method. We then examine if the investor sentiment propagates among the markets and how the interdependency through the propagation changes during the course of the US subprime crisis. We adopt a bivariate Conditional dynamic correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC GARCH) model, and use a sample of the global markets for the following area: USA and Latin America, in our investigation between ‘‘turbulent’’ and ‘‘tranquil’’ periods in the financial markets . Our results identify that: (1) a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between investor sentiment in the US and other global markets during the subprime crisis period; (2) a global contagion of investor sentiment occurred from the US market on September 15, 2008 to other developed countries; and (3) the global markets are all interrelated. (4) We find that sentiment tends to be a more important determinant of returns in the run-up to crisis than at other times.

Keywords: Subprime crisis; Investor sentiment; Contagion; Bivariate DCC GARCH model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G11 G15 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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