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The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang, Tran Ngoc Tho and Dinh Thi Thu Hong
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Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang: School of Finance, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,
Tran Ngoc Tho: School of Finance, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,
Dinh Thi Thu Hong: School of Finance, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, vol. 7, issue 3, 42-49

Abstract: In oil exporting countries, especially OPEC members, oil price fluctuation has significant impacts on their economies. Herein, just a drop in the oil price causes directly many adverse effects, such as inflation, falls in economic growth, and increases in unemployment. However with a country which not only exports crude oil but also imports petroleum as Vietnam, it is not easy to determine falling or a rising oil prices is beneficial to the economy. Therefore, this paper aims to carry out a numerical analysis on the influences of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables of Vietnam, including inflation, growth rate, budget deficit and unemployment, during a period from 2000 to 2015. By using a vector auto regression model, it is realized that a rise in oil prices would lead to higher inflation and budget deficit in Vietnam while its impacts on the gross domestic product growth and unemployment are unclear.

Keywords: Oil Price; Vietnam; Impulse Response; Variance Decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 O47 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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