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External Effects of the War in Ukraine: The Impact on the Price of Oil in the Short-term

Antonio Jose Garzon Gordon and Luis Angel Hierro Recio
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Antonio Jose Garzon Gordon: University of Seville, Spain.
Luis Angel Hierro Recio: University of Seville, Spain.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019, vol. 9, issue 2, 267-276

Abstract: This paper analyses the short-term impact of the most relevant events of the war in the Ukraine on the price of oil. In order to determine the events to be studied, we propose a methodology based on a study of the news published in two reference newspapers in the markets: the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. From this selection, we use an event study model to detect the significance of the events. The main results obtained are: events that affected daily oil prices were scarce and occurred during very specific phases of the conflict; WTI price was more affected than Brent, even though the war took place in Europe; there is no noticeable lagged effect in the events, suggesting that the market assimilated the impact of relevant events very quickly.

Keywords: oil price; war; Ukraine; event study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 G14 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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