Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020

Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin, Nikolay Pilnik and Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich
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Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin: Head of Center for Energy Research, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya Str.23, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich: Junior Research Fellow, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya Str.23, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2021, vol. 11, issue 5, 510-518

Abstract: The paper applies the Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) framework to analysis of the influence of world oil price and exchange rate and interest rate policies on economic growth and consumer inflation in three post-Soviet oil exporters: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is shown that transition to inflation targeting regime with floating exchange rate in 2014 2015 weakened the link between economic growth and world oil price in Russia and Kazakhstan. In Azerbaijan previously nonexistent systemic link between GDP growth and world oil price has emerged. It is also shown that all three countries de facto diverted from free floating exchange rate regime after 2017.

Keywords: Brent Oil Price; Nominal Exchange Rate; Economic growth; Interest Rate; Inflation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E11 E37 E61 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-05-58

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