Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk In Major Oil Producing Countries and Oil Price

Tin Hei Alpha Yuen and Wai Kee Thomas Yuen
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Tin Hei Alpha Yuen: University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,
Wai Kee Thomas Yuen: Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2022, vol. 12, issue 5, 117-123

Abstract: This study has applied Granger causality tests and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) models to examine the relationship between geopolitical risk in major oil-producing countries and the crude oil price before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The granger causality tests show that the geopolitical risk of Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States and China granger cause changes in crude oil prices. The DOLS models show that the series in the model are cointegrated. The coefficients for the geopolitical index of Canada, Russia and China are significant before the 2008 financial crisis sample period. However, the DOLS model shows that the coefficients for all geopolitical indexes are insignificant after the 2008 financial crisis sample period. The general public and investors generally precept major oil exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia as the major players in the oil market. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the discrepancy in the economic needs of the major oil-producing countries has reduced their ability to co-operate crude oil prices. This study also discovered that China plays a significant role in the oil market.

Keywords: Oil Prices; Oil Production; Granger Causality Test; Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares Model; Geopolitical Risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 H56 Q02 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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