The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand

Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee and Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon
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Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee: Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Salaya, Thailand,
Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon: Graduate School of Business and Advanced Technology Management, Assumption University, Bangkok, Thailand.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2022, vol. 12, issue 5, 36-46

Abstract: The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of Thailand by creating a model with validity called Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Observed Variables (PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx). The results showed that the three latent variables (economic, social, and environmental) were found to be causal related. From the PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx (1,1,1), it is characterized as the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) with highest performance, where mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals to 1.55%, and root mean square error (RMSE) equals to 1.97% upon comparing them to other models. If the government implements this model to define a new scenario policy by stipulating future total energy consumption (2020-2039) below the national carrying capacity, with minimal error correction mechanism and great impact on model relationship, the future CO2 emission (2020-2039) is expected to drop a growth rate continuously. When a new scenario policy is determined, CO2 emission was found to increase at a growth rate of only 8.95% (2020/2039) or by 78.99 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039) going below carrying capacity set off at 90.05 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039). The result is clearly different in the absence of the new scenario policy.

Keywords: Sustainability policy; new scenario policy; Spurious model; Carrying Capacity; Short-long term. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P28 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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