Guidelines for Increasing the Effectiveness of Thailand s Sustainable Development Policy based on Energy Consumption: Enriching the Path-GARCH Model

Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Jindamas Sutthichaimethee, Chittinan Vutikorn, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee, Srochinee Siriwattana, Apinyar Chatchorfa and Borworn Khomchunsri
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Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee: Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Salaya, Thailand,
Jindamas Sutthichaimethee: Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10400, Thailand,
Chittinan Vutikorn: Faculty of Management Science, Phranakhon Rajabhat University, Bangkhen, Bangkok 10220, Thailand,
Danupon Ariyasajjakorn: Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Wang Mai, Khet Pathum Wan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand,
Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee: Faculty of Public Administration, Dhurakij Pundit University, 110/1-4 Prachachuen Road, Laksi District, Bangkok 10210, Thailand,
Srochinee Siriwattana: Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, U-Thong nok Road, Dusit, Bangkok 10300, Thailand,
Apinyar Chatchorfa: Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Mahachulalongkornrajavidyalaya University, Phahon Yothin Rd., Kilometer 55 Lam Sai, Wang Noi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 13170, Thailand.
Borworn Khomchunsri: Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Mahachulalongkornrajavidyalaya University, Phahon Yothin Rd., Kilometer 55 Lam Sai, Wang Noi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 13170, Thailand.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2023, vol. 13, issue 1, 67-74

Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop a model for forecasting energy consumption and to increase the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy based on energy consumption by using the best model, the Path Analysis-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model (Path-GARCH model). To improve the effectiveness of sustainability policies, the researcher has envisioned the final energy consumption over a 20-year period (AD 2023 2022) by defining a new scenario policy. Comparing the performance of the Path-GARCH model to other previous models, the Path-GARCH model was found to have the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) values. In addition, the study found that energy consumption continued to rise to 125,055 ktoe by 2042, with a growth rate of 115.05% between 2042 and 2023, which exceeded the carrying capacity limit of 90,000 ktoe. When a new scenario policy is implemented, however, the final energy consumption continues to rise to 74,091 ktoe (2042). Consequently, defining a new scenario policy is a crucial development guideline for enhancing the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy.

Keywords: Sustainability policy; new scenarios policy; energy consumption; forecasting; carrying capacity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P28 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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