Walking as an Alternative to Indonesia s Oil Consumption Problem

Heru Wahyudi, Winda Rika Lestasi, Ratna Septiyanti and Widia Anggi Palupi
Additional contact information
Heru Wahyudi: University of Lampung, Indonesia
Winda Rika Lestasi: Institute of Informatics and Business Darmajaya, Indonesia.
Ratna Septiyanti: University of Lampung, Indonesia,
Widia Anggi Palupi: University of Lampung, Indonesia,

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2023, vol. 13, issue 4, 111-119

Abstract: Oil is one of the vital energy sources in a country. Indonesia is one of the countries that was once the world's primary leading producer but is currently threatened with an oil deficit. This condition certainly requires the right strategy and policy so that Indonesia can meet its domestic oil needs. This study aims to forecast Indonesia's oil consumption and production for 2022-2026 using past data from 1980-2021. This study used the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, where several alternative models were produced in forecasting oil consumption, namely ARIMA (2, 1, 2), (2, 1, 16), (15, 1, 2), and (15, 1, 16) and also alternative models of oil production, namely ARIMA (3, 1, 9), (3, 1, 11), (13, 1, 9), and (13, 1, 11). Based on several alternative models, the best models for forecasting oil consumption and oil production are (2, 1, 16) and (3, 1, 9), respectively. From the results of this study, it is reduced that Indonesia's oil consumption is far above oil production. This, if left unchecked, can negatively affect the country's economy. Thus, research can be used as a reference for policy-making related to fulfilling oil consumption and increasing oil production in Indonesia.

Keywords: ARIMA; Consumption; Indonesia; Oil; Production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E23 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14393/7380 (application/pdf)
https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14393 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-04-13

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy is currently edited by Ilhan Ozturk

More articles in International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy from Econjournals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ilhan Ozturk ().