An Investigation on the Effects of Oil Price, Industrial Production and Agricultural Production on Inflation in Kazakhstan Using the Toda-Yamamoto Model with Structural Breaks

Lyazat Talimova (), Amir Kateyevich Sembekov (), Nurilya Kuchukova (), Aizhan Sarsenovna Assilova (), Gulnara Omarova (), Aigul Tlesova () and Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy ()
Additional contact information
Lyazat Talimova: Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Amir Kateyevich Sembekov: Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Nurilya Kuchukova: Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Aizhan Sarsenovna Assilova: Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Gulnara Omarova: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Aigul Tlesova: Makhambet Utemisov West Kazakhstan University, Uralsk, Kazakhstan
Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 15, issue 2, 538-546

Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of oil prices, as well as industrial and agricultural production activities, on inflation in the Kazakh economy using a structural break model. The research was conducted using annual data from 1996 to 2023, employing Toda-Yamamoto causality and Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests. The aim of the study is to provide strategic recommendations to policymakers by examining the dynamic relationships between various economic indicators. The macroeconomic data were analyzed to understand how industrial and agricultural production, alongside oil prices, influence inflation. The findings reveal that oil prices have a direct and statistically significant impact on inflation. Additionally, a bidirectional causality relationship was identified between industrial production and inflation. In contrast, agricultural production was found to affect inflation in the short term but does not have a significant long-term influence. This suggests that agricultural production plays a limited role in the dynamics of inflation. Based on the analysis, the study emphasizes the need to prioritize these factors in economic policy, particularly the impacts of oil prices and industrial production on inflation. It also highlights the importance of increasing industrial production capacity and wisely utilizing oil revenues to support economic diversification. These findings offer valuable guidance for ensuring Kazakhstan's economic stability and fostering long-term growth.

Keywords: Kazakhstan; Oil Price; Industrial Production; Agricultural Production; Inflation; Toda?Yamamoto; Gregory?Hansen Cointegration Test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/18416/8684 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:v:15:y:2025:i:2:id:18416

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep

DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.18416

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy from International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Monica Sinhat ().