Structural Impacts of Global Climate Agreements on CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in 106 Middle-Income Countries

Tuhin G. M. Al Mamun (), Ehsanullah Ehsanullah (), Mohammad Bin Amin (), Veronika Fenyves () and Judit Oláh ()
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Tuhin G. M. Al Mamun: Department of Economics, Hannam University, South Korea
Ehsanullah Ehsanullah: Department of Economics, Hannam University, South Korea
Mohammad Bin Amin: Doctoral School of Management and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138; Post Code: 4032, Debrecen, Hungary; & Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Business Studies, Bangladesh Army University of Science and Technology, Saidpur, 5310, Nilphamari, Bangladesh
Veronika Fenyves: Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138, 4032, Debrecen, Hungary
Judit Oláh: Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138; 4032 Debrecen, Hungary; & Doctoral School of Management and Business Administration, John von Neumann University, 6000 Kecskemét, Hungary; & Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 890-901

Abstract: Rising CO2 emissions remain a critical challenge for middle-income countries, where economic growth continues to drive environmental degradation. This study examines the long- and short-run relationships between CO2 emissions, energy use, GDP per capita, and population in 106 middle-income countries from 1980 to 2023. Using a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with structural breaks for the UNFCCC (1994), Kyoto Protocol (2005), and Paris Agreement (2016), it evaluates the comparative effectiveness of major international climate agreements. Cointegration tests confirm a stable long-run equilibrium among the variables, with GDP per capita exerting upward pressure on emissions, while rising energy use increasingly reflects efficiency gains and cleaner technologies. The results show that the Kyoto Protocol produced a modest but statistically significant reduction in emissions, while the UNFCCC had a smaller yet meaningful influence. By contrast, the Paris Agreement has not yet delivered measurable long-run or short-run impacts. Granger causality tests confirm that energy use strongly drives emissions in the short run, while GDP per capita and population exert gradual effects over time. Variance decomposition and impulse response analysis further demonstrate that emissions trajectories remain shaped more by energy and economic dynamics than by participation in global agreements. Robustness checks, including autocorrelation diagnostics and slope homogeneity tests, confirm model stability. The findings highlight that while binding commitments under Kyoto generated observable though limited progress, voluntary frameworks such as Paris remain insufficient without strong domestic policy enforcement, sector-specific reforms, and sustained investment in renewable energy.

Keywords: CO2 Emissions; Energy Consumption; Economic Growth; Paris Agreement; Kyoto Protocol; Analysis; Climate Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.21399

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