The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Crude Oil Prices

Amir Imeri (), Luis A. Gil-Alana () and Manuel Monge ()
Additional contact information
Amir Imeri: MIT University, Skopje, North Macedonia,
Luis A. Gil-Alana: University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; & Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; & Universidad Europea de Madrid, Madrid, Spain,
Manuel Monge: Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; & Universidad Europea de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2026, vol. 16, issue 2, 350-354

Abstract: This paper investigates the properties of the crude oil prices in the context of the Ukraine- Russia conflict by using statistical techniques based on long memory and fractional integration. In order to understand the volatility of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the period September 12, 2012 to September 12, 2022 are used. The results using unit root tests indicate nonstationarity I(1) for the whole sample period but also for the two subsamples created by the war. Additionally, the findings through ARFIMA approach for the whole period as well as pre-Russia-Ukraine war period confirm mean reversion and transitory shock, whereas for the period from the start of Russia-Ukraine war, the shock in crude oil prices is expected to be permanent. There is a need for inter-governmental cooperation in keeping the oil price at its normal value.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict; Crude Oil Prices, Persistence, Shocks, Fractional Integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/22124/9774 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:v:16:y:2026:i:2:id:22124

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep

DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.22124

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy from International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Monica Sinhat ().