Upstream Gas Portfolio Optimization under Fiscal Rules and Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Mapping

Marcelino Freitas Naikosou (), Adityawarman Adityawarman (), Mario Viana Guterres (), Teodoro Marcos Mota (), Nabil Visi Samawi (), Tutuka Ariadji (), Utjok W. R. Siagian (), Agus Yodi Gunawan (), Danang Hayu Prenata () and Estanislau de Sousa Saldanha ()
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Marcelino Freitas Naikosou: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Adityawarman Adityawarman: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Mario Viana Guterres: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Teodoro Marcos Mota: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Nabil Visi Samawi: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Energy Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Tutuka Ariadji: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Utjok W. R. Siagian: Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia; & Center for Research on Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Agus Yodi Gunawan: Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia,
Danang Hayu Prenata: Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Estanislau de Sousa Saldanha: Graduate School, MBA Program, Dili Institute of Technology (DIT), Timor-Leste

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2026, vol. 16, issue 2, 914-924

Abstract: This study combines a systematic review (in accordance with PRISMA) and bibliometric mapping (VOSviewer & Bibliometrix) to explain how upstream gas portfolio decisions are optimized when fiscal rules limit annual cash flow. The Scopus 2005-2025 corpus of Title-Abstract-Keywords searches (1,149 records) confirm two pillars of the method: stochastic/robust optimization for portfolio sequencing and real options for flexibility in investment time and scale. Trend analysis, intellectual networks, and keyword evolution show the dominance of analytical-decision and reservoir planning themes; conversely, fiscal overlays such as withdrawal caps, cash-flow/budget constraints are still rarely formalized in mainstream models. The SLR synthesis shows that explicitly coding multi-period liquidity constraints materially changes project selection, sequencing, peak cash, and break-even timing compared to the baseline without constraints. The policy implication is a shift from hard caps to multi-period designed caps (with liquidity floors and countercyclical elements) integrated directly into the optimization framework. To balance value and fiscal stability, we recommend a gas-centric and modular portfolio that pairs ENPV with downside risk control objectives (e.g., CVaR/peak cash minimization). The main contribution of this study is to map fiscal gaps in the optimization literature and propose a research direction towards an integrated stochastic-real options framework with an overlay of fiscal rules that enables policy frontier reporting (value vs. stability).

Keywords: Upstream Gas; Portfolio Optimization; Fiscal Rules; Capital Rationing; Stochastic Optimization; Real Options; Cash-flow Constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.22235

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