The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil
Guilherme Jonas Costa Da Silva (),
José Luís Oreiro () and
Gustavo Jose de Guimaraes e Souza ()
Revista CEPAL, 2012
This article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real GDP in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables, mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion, Brazil's only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.
Keywords: CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO; MODELOS DE DESARROLLO; OFERTA Y DEMANDA; TIPOS DE CAMBIO; EXPORTACIONES; MACROECONOMIA; MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS; ECONOMIC GROWTH; DEVELOPMENT MODELS; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES; EXPORTS; MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMETRIC MODELS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Note: Includes bibliography
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Working Paper: The Economics of Demand Led-Growth: Theory and Evidence for Brazil (2010)
Working Paper: The Economics of Demand Led-Growth Theory and Evidence for Brazil (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecr:col070:11588
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