The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

Pablo Pincheira and Hernán Rubio Hurtado

Revista CEPAL, 2015

Abstract: This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.

Date: 2015-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecr:col070:39619

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