Modelling methodology and forecast failure

Michael Clements and David Hendry

Econometrics Journal, 2002, vol. 5, issue 2, 319-344

Abstract: We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications. Copyright Royal Economic Society, 2002

Date: 2002
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:319-344

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.ectj.org

Access Statistics for this article

Econometrics Journal is currently edited by Richard J. Smith, Oliver Linton, Pierre Perron, Jaap Abbring and Marius Ooms

More articles in Econometrics Journal from Royal Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing () and Christopher F. Baum ().