Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments
Benjamin Van Doorslaer,
Andrej Ceglar and
Francisco J. Fernández
Agricultural Systems, 2017, vol. 156, issue C, 52-66
The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment – for the 2030 time horizon – covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The magnitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. Economic simulations show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other.
Keywords: Climate change; Crop productivity; Agrifood system; Bio-economic modelling; Carbon fertilization effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:156:y:2017:i:c:p:52-66
Access Statistics for this article
Agricultural Systems is currently edited by J.W. Hansen, P.K. Thornton and P.B.M. Berentsen
More articles in Agricultural Systems from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().