Assessing the information in crop model and meteorological indicators to forecast crop yield over Europe

Rémi Lecerf, Andrej Ceglar, Raúl López-Lozano, Marijn Van Der Velde and Bettina Baruth

Agricultural Systems, 2019, vol. 168, issue C, 191-202

Abstract: The MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS) is used since 1993 to forecast the yields of all major crops in the European Union (EU) based on gridded runs of the WOFOST crop model. Using 28 years of observation, from 1988 to 2015, we quantified the variability in crop yield reported by all 28 EU Member States (MS) that can be explained by each individual WOFOST crop model based predictors and a few simple meteorological variables. A linear regression is used as a screening tool to quantify the relationship between each predictor and the yield residuals from the trend throughout the crop cycle for 168 country/crop combinations, assuming the yield residuals from the trend depend on the inter-annual climate variability. The results are plotted and analyzed at different level: every 10 days for each country crop/combination and each predictor; synthetized every 10 days for each country/crop combination keeping the predictor showing the best relationship with the yield residuals; finally, the best predictor found for each MS during the entire growing season is used to evaluate the ability of the model to estimate yield variability of each crop at European scale.

Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:168:y:2019:i:c:p:191-202

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.03.002

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