Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in the Himalayas: A case study in Nepal

D. Bocchiola, L. Brunetti, A. Soncini, F. Polinelli and M. Gianinetto

Agricultural Systems, 2019, vol. 171, issue C, 113-125

Abstract: The paradigmatic Dudh Koshi basin laid at the toe of Mt. Everest is largely visited by tourists every year, and yet agricultural productivity and food security therein are at stake under climate change. Agricultural yield in the area recently decreased, and the question arose whether cropping at higher altitudes may help adaptation. We investigated here the present, and future (until 2100) patterns of productivity of three main rain-fed crops in the catchment (wheat Triticum L., rice Oryza L., and maize Zea Mais L.). We explored food security using a nutritional index, given by the ratio of the caloric content from our target cereals, to daily caloric demand. We preliminary investigated whether vertical extension of the cropped area may increase food security. We did so by (i) mapping crops area using remote sensing, (ii) setting up the agronomic model Poly-Crop, (iii) feeding Poly-Crop with downscaled outputs from global climate models, and (iv) projecting vertical land occupation for cropping, population projections, and nutritional requirements. We estimated crop yield and food security at half century (2040–2050), and end of century (2090–2100), against a control run decade CR (2003−2013), under constant land use, and projected land occupation. On average, specific wheat yield would decrease against CR by −25% (rice −42%, maize −46%) at 2100, with largely yearly variability for unchanged land use scenario. Under modified land use scenario, wheat yield would decrease by −38%, while rice and maize yield would improve, maize very slightly (−22%, and −45%, against CR) in response to occupation of higher altitudes than now. Our food security index would decrease under all scenarios (111% in 2010, 49% on average at 2050, under a population peak, and 51% at 2100), and become more variable, however with potential for adaptation by colonization of higher lands (75%, 62%, at 2050, 2100). Very large expansion of one cereal (i.e. maize), may make food security more unstable, as mostly depending on erratic yield of that cereal only.

Keywords: Nepal; Himalaya; Food security; Crop yield; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18303718
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:171:y:2019:i:c:p:113-125

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.01.008

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Systems is currently edited by J.W. Hansen, P.K. Thornton and P.B.M. Berentsen

More articles in Agricultural Systems from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().